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Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
DISCLAIMER TO THREAD:

Since there has been a lot of apprehension in determining what allocations may look like in 2022, I decided to dig into some data to make an educated guess. This estimation makes a lot of assumptions. Therefore, you should not take this information as gospel. It is not official information, and it is very possible that actual allocations will look different.

The data below makes the following assumptions:
  • Dealerships are allocated vehicles equally regardless of location or population density.
  • The number of dealerships in each state accurately represents sales demand for the state.
  • The Motomachi plant is capable of fulfilling and shipping all orders without interruption.

SOURCES FOR INFORMATION:

I have provided links to my sources below. Information relating to the number of dealerships in each state was taken directly from official Toyota sources. With regard to which states belong to which sales regions, I found differing information. An article from U.S. News in 2010 defined which states belonged to which regions. It is represented in the map below albeit different names for some regions. This is the map that has been circulated around forums for years.

Ecoregion Map World Line Font


Source for Toyota Regions: U.S. News Article
Source for Number of Dealerships by State: Toyota USA
A document from Toyota in 2017 seemed to indicate that the regions had changed (see image and source below). Connecticut appears to have been moved to the Boston region, the upper peninsula of Michigan appears to have been moved to the Chicago region, and several states like Delaware and Rhode Island appear to be poorly defined. However, I could not find any information online to corroborate these changes. Therefore, for the purposes of these estimations, I have elected to use the previously accepted region map shown above.

Ecoregion World Map Atlas Font

Allocation data was extrapolated from a dealer document leaked in February 2022. The document contained allocation information for the New York region for 2022. The document states that 90 GR Corollas will be allocated to the New York region.

Finger Font Material property Beauty Nail


Source for 2022 New York Allocations: Carscoops Article
It is important to note that the map I chose to use above is significant in combination with this leaked dealer document. Because Connecticut is considered part of the New York region in the older map, allocations per dealership estimations will be lower. If Connecticut is in fact part of the Boston region, which I cannot verify, allocations per dealership will be higher. If you have any additional information on sales regions, please let me know.

MY ESTIMATIONS:

Total Estimated 2022 Allocations: 923​
Estimated Allocations per Dealership: 0.62​

Below I have ranked each region by size. I have also included the number of dealerships in the region, the states included, the number of dealers per state, and the number of allocations estimated for the region.
  • Southeast Toyota
    • Total Number of Dealerships: 217
    • States Included: Florida (78), North Carolina (46), Georgia (44), Alabama (25), South Carolina (24)
    • Estimated 2022 Allocation: 135
  • Gulf States Toyota
    • Total Number of Dealerships: 176
    • States Included: Texas (100), Louisiana (27), Mississippi (18), Arkansas (16), Oklahoma (15)
    • Estimated 2022 Allocation: 109
  • Los Angeles and San Francisco Regions*
    • Total Number of Dealerships: 174
    • States Included: California (174)
    • Estimated 2022 Allocation: 108
  • Central Atlantic Toyota
    • Total Number of Dealerships: 157
    • States Included: Pennsylvania (67), Virginia (41), Maryland (31), West Virginia (13), Delaware (5)
    • Estimated 2022 Allocation: 97
  • New York Region:
    • Total Number of Dealerships: 145
    • States Included: New York (79), New Jersey (42), Connecticut (24)
    • Rumored 2022 Allocation: 90
  • Cincinnati Region
    • Total Number of Dealerships: 143
    • States Included: Ohio (55), Michigan (33), Tennessee (32), Kentucky (23)
    • Estimated 2022 Allocation: 89
  • Chicago Region
    • Total Number of Dealerships: 134
    • States Included: Illinois (57), Indiana (31), Wisconsin (27), Minnesota (19)
    • Estimated 2022 Allocation: 83
  • Denver Region
    • Total Number of Dealerships: 89
    • States Included: Arizona (25), Colorado (23), New Mexico (13), Nevada (11), Utah (10), Wyoming (7)
    • Estimated 2022 Allocation: 55
  • Kansas City Region
    • Total Number of Dealerships: 85
    • States Included: Missouri (27), Iowa (18), Kansas (17), Nebraska (11), North Dakota (7), South Dakota (5)
    • Estimated 2022 Allocation: 53
  • Portland Region
    • Total Number of Dealerships: 80
    • States Included: Washington (35), Oregon (25), Idaho (9), Montana (7), Alaska (4)
    • Estimated 2022 Allocation: 50
  • Boston Region
    • Total Number of Dealerships: 80
    • States Included: Massachusetts (43), New Hampshire (13), Maine (10), Vermont (7), Rhode Island (7)
    • Estimated 2022 Allocation: 50
  • Toyota Hawaii
    • Total Number of Dealerships: 6
    • States Included: Hawaii (6)
    • Estimated 2022 Allocation: 4
* The Los Angeles and San Francisco regions were combined because I could not locate data for the individual regions.​
CONCLUSIONS
As you can see, for the calendar year 2022, there will likely be less than 1,000 GR Corollas allocated to the United States. It will be incredibly difficult to get a GR Corolla this year. The best way to maximize your chances of obtaining a vehicle will be to contact as many dealers as you can to maximize your footprint.​
From this data, you can make more estimations for your local area. Simply multiply the estimated allocations per dealer by the number of dealers in your area. This will give you an idea of just how many vehicles will come to your city.​
If there is anything you find wrong in my data, please do not hesitate to let me know. I hope you find this useful.​
 

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Thank you for your efforts, KanmuriDavid! This is fun. Because I'm from Michigan, I just wonder if your estimates split the state in two. In the supplied map it looks like the UP is in Chicago region and the lower Michigan is in Cincinnati region.
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 · (Edited)
Thank you for your efforts, KanmuriDavid! This is fun. Because I'm from Michigan, I just wonder if your estimates split the state in two. In the supplied map it looks like the UP is in Chicago region and the lower Michigan is in Cincinnati region.
That is a great point! I didn't even notice this. My calculations included the entire state in the Cincinnati region. From just the short digging I did online, I wasn't able to find information for each peninsula specifically. However, to simplify this for you, the entire state of Michigan looks like it'd get 20 cars if the theory I used here is correct.
 

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However, to simplify this for you, the entire state of Michigan looks like it'd get 20 cars if the theory I used here is correct.
Thank you. It’s probably going to be a long wait for me, if this turns out to be Toyota’s plan. But it’s all right. I have no plan to get anything else. I’ll drive my ST until I get a GRC.
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 · (Edited)
Thank you. It’s probably going to be a long wait for me, if this turns out to be Toyota’s plan. But it’s all right. I have no plan to get anything else. I’ll drive my ST until I get a GRC.
I wanted to provide an update. I looked into your comment further and noticed other discrepancies on the map as well. For example, Connecticut appears to have been moved to the Boston region. This is different than previously accepted region maps.

I looked online to see if I could verify whether the Toyota map I originally posted is correct but couldn't find anything else similar. It is very much possible that the entire state of Michigan is part of the Cincinnati region. Based on my inability to verify the Toyota map, I have opted to use the older, widely-accepted map as the definitive source. I updated the thread with additional information so future people will not be confused.

These distinctions are actually not insignificant because Connecticut was traditionally part of the New York region, which is the only region we have actual allocation numbers for. Therefore, if Connecticut were to move to another region, allocation numbers for all regions and would change.
 

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  • ~1238 Toyota dealers
  • CT is part of NY Region
  • UP Michigan only has like 1 or 2 dlrs. They are part of Cincinnati region
  • The 2nd map is a TFS map
  • The entire premise of this topic hinges on the fact that a leaked sales doc = allocations which is crazy
 

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I know we're bored so we're just piecing stuff together for funnies and giggles.

...but

The data below makes the following assumptions:
  • Dealerships are allocated vehicles equally regardless of location or population density.
  • The number of dealerships in each state accurately represents sales demand for the state.
You're starting your analysis off with assumptions you know are false.

It is very known that each region is treated and prioritized very differently depending on product type. Even on a simplistic level, some drastically favor trucks/SUV, and some favor sedans/compact cars. And even within each region, each dealership is treated and prioritized differently based on performance.

Your estimated total is not far off from known numbers:

~5100 estimated for NA. Thats ~1200 per 3 month period. I would guess that anything between 800-1400 units for the first 3 months is fair game - the first full wave is usually the biggest wave (like the GR86, the first full month sold 1.3k units, the second and third month sold .9k and 1k respectively - I imagine 1k a month is their production rate, but they stockpiled an extra few hundred pre-release).

But where those 800-1400 units will go....
 

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Discussion Starter · #10 ·
I know we're bored so we're just piecing stuff together for funnies and giggles.

...but



You're starting your analysis off with assumptions you know are false.

It is very known that each region is treated and prioritized very differently depending on product type. Even on a simplistic level, some drastically favor trucks/SUV, and some favor sedans/compact cars. And even within each region, each dealership is treated and prioritized differently based on performance.

Your estimated total is not far off from known numbers:

~5100 estimated for NA. Thats ~1200 per 3 month period. I would guess that anything between 800-1400 units for the first 3 months is fair game - the first full wave is usually the biggest wave (like the GR86, the first full month sold 1.3k units, the second and third month sold .9k and 1k respectively - I imagine 1k a month is their production rate, but they stockpiled an extra few hundred pre-release).

But where those 800-1400 units will go....
You make fair points. It is definitely not perfect logic, but just a ballpark guess. I'm no expert for sure. For all our sakes, I hope what you say is true and there is a stockpile being formed.
 

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Contacted quite a few Toyotas around the east coast

One in Tyson's Corner in VA told me they're putting a 15k markup on it.

One in Tampa,FL told me 10k.

Both can shove it up their asses.

A place in GA told me they won't markup, but they're adding a non-negotiable 4k "package" for nitrogen air, tint, etc.

Talked to another dealer in GA that's only doing a 1.5k markup with a 500 brake light thing,but no other changes/charges. Small small fees for certain things like documentations, etc. Which is about a 2100 charge on MSRP. They're looking like my best option.

I'm #3 on a list in a Toyota in north FL,but they have no info to give me.
 

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Contacted quite a few Toyotas around the east coast

One in Tyson's Corner in VA told me they're putting a 15k markup on it.

One in Tampa,FL told me 10k.

Both can shove it up their asses.

A place in GA told me they won't markup, but they're adding a non-negotiable 4k "package" for nitrogen air, tint, etc.

Talked to another dealer in GA that's only doing a 1.5k markup with a 500 brake light thing,but no other changes/charges. Small small fees for certain things like documentations, etc. Which is about a 2100 charge on MSRP. They're looking like my best option.

I'm #3 on a list in a Toyota in north FL,but they have no info to give me.
What are the dealers in GA if you don’t mind done asking? I’m north of Atlanta
 

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What are the dealers in GA if you don’t mind done asking? I’m north of Atlanta
To be honest, I can't remember who all I reached out to lol. The one I'm most likely going with, I'll let you know after I put a deposit down 😅 don't wanna move myself down a list while I'm still overseas

Edit to add, the dealer in GA with the forceful 4k charge is around the ATL area
 

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As you can see, for the calendar year 2022, there will likely be less than 1,000 GR Corollas allocated to the United States. It will be incredibly difficult to get a GR Corolla this year. The best way to maximize your chances of obtaining a vehicle will be to contact as many dealers as you can to maximize your footprint.
The best way to maximize your chance of getting one in 2022 is being willing to pay a huge markup. It sucks, but that's 100% fact. For example, if you are number 1 on a list at Jim's Toyota Emporium and I call Jim offering $20k markup for the number 1 spot, I'm going to be number 1 at Jim's Toyota Emporium until someone comes along offering $25k. The reason for this is 1) no matter how much you badmouth them online, it isn't going to do $20k worth of damage to their brand 2) they have no legal obligation to give you the first car and 3) chances are you aren't going to even be aware when the first car comes through that particular dealership... especially if you are on lists of out of town dealers.

IMO, advising everyone to get their names on a bunch of lists will just ensure chaos. It is just going to make the situation worse and make us buyers look more desperate. Every dealer will think there is more demand than there actually is. Dealers will use that deep waiting list as justification for markup and/or ignoring the waiting list all together for whoever is at the dealership with the most cash in hand when it unloads because they don't want to deal with calling a dozen people who are on multiple lists waiting for their perfect spec.

If your priority is getting one ASAP, get on a list with a dealership, follow up every couple months, go meet the salesperson in person, and be prepared to pay some markup and get a less desirable build.

If your priority is getting exactly what you want, get on a list, meet the salesperson in person, make your desired spec known and clear (what you are flexible on on, what are must haves), follow up every couple months, and be prepared to wait.
 

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IMO, advising everyone to get their names on a bunch of lists will just ensure chaos. It is just going to make the situation worse and make us buyers look more desperate. Every dealer will think there is more demand than there actually is. Dealers will use that deep waiting list as justification for markup and/or ignoring the waiting list all together for whoever is at the dealership with the most cash in hand when it unloads because they don't want to deal with calling a dozen people who are on multiple lists waiting for their perfect spec.

If your priority is getting one ASAP, get on a list with a dealership, follow up every couple months, go meet the salesperson in person, and be prepared to pay some markup and get a less desirable build.

If your priority is getting exactly what you want, get on a list, meet the salesperson in person, make your desired spec known and clear (what you are flexible on on, what are must haves), follow up every couple months, and be prepared to wait.
I tend to agree. I'll wait.
 

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The best way to maximize your chance of getting one in 2022 is being willing to pay a huge markup. It sucks, but that's 100% fact. For example, if you are number 1 on a list at Jim's Toyota Emporium and I call Jim offering $20k markup for the number 1 spot, I'm going to be number 1 at Jim's Toyota Emporium until someone comes along offering $25k. The reason for this is 1) no matter how much you badmouth them online, it isn't going to do $20k worth of damage to their brand 2) they have no legal obligation to give you the first car and 3) chances are you aren't going to even be aware when the first car comes through that particular dealership... especially if you are on lists of out of town dealers.

IMO, advising everyone to get their names on a bunch of lists will just ensure chaos. It is just going to make the situation worse and make us buyers look more desperate. Every dealer will think there is more demand than there actually is. Dealers will use that deep waiting list as justification for markup and/or ignoring the waiting list all together for whoever is at the dealership with the most cash in hand when it unloads because they don't want to deal with calling a dozen people who are on multiple lists waiting for their perfect spec.

If your priority is getting one ASAP, get on a list with a dealership, follow up every couple months, go meet the salesperson in person, and be prepared to pay some markup and get a less desirable build.

If your priority is getting exactly what you want, get on a list, meet the salesperson in person, make your desired spec known and clear (what you are flexible on on, what are must haves), follow up every couple months, and be prepared to wait.
I agree with the “if everyone is on 5 lists demand will seem higher than reality”

I see the dealers that like charging markups able to sell 1 or 2 right away to eager beavers, but then I’m guessing once that initial hype is over they will just have one sitting on their showroom floor for 20k over MSRP for a long time. These are probably Also dealers that don’t get big allocations on specialty models
 

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It is very known that each region is treated and prioritized very differently depending on product type. Even on a simplistic level, some drastically favor trucks/SUV, and some favor sedans/compact cars. And even within each region, each dealership is treated and prioritized differently based on performance.
^^^ This. If anyone knows the secret sauce to how this scale is applied please chime in.

I personally believe areas that align with the purchasing demos in terms of age, income, and also just purchasing preference (4wd, manual, "sports" cars, hot hatches, etc.), will see a lot more units then areas that do not.

Basically if your area is crawling with Civic Type Rs, GTIs, WRX & STIs or others in class I think your chances of getting your hands on a GRC is pretty decent. If you never see those cars around it's probably going to be a difficult hunt.
 
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