Thank you for your efforts, KanmuriDavid! This is fun. Because I'm from Michigan, I just wonder if your estimates split the state in two. In the supplied map it looks like the UP is in Chicago region and the lower Michigan is in Cincinnati region.
That is a great point! I didn't even notice this. My calculations included the entire state in the Cincinnati region. From just the short digging I did online, I wasn't able to find information for each peninsula specifically. However, to simplify this for you, the entire state of Michigan looks like it'd get 20 cars if the theory I used here is correct.Thank you for your efforts, KanmuriDavid! This is fun. Because I'm from Michigan, I just wonder if your estimates split the state in two. In the supplied map it looks like the UP is in Chicago region and the lower Michigan is in Cincinnati region.
Thank you. It’s probably going to be a long wait for me, if this turns out to be Toyota’s plan. But it’s all right. I have no plan to get anything else. I’ll drive my ST until I get a GRC.However, to simplify this for you, the entire state of Michigan looks like it'd get 20 cars if the theory I used here is correct.
I wanted to provide an update. I looked into your comment further and noticed other discrepancies on the map as well. For example, Connecticut appears to have been moved to the Boston region. This is different than previously accepted region maps.Thank you. It’s probably going to be a long wait for me, if this turns out to be Toyota’s plan. But it’s all right. I have no plan to get anything else. I’ll drive my ST until I get a GRC.
Yup. It’s just a ballpark guesstimate. We are having fun on a weekend. 😃
- The entire premise of this topic hinges on the fact that a leaked sales doc = allocations which is crazy
You're starting your analysis off with assumptions you know are false.The data below makes the following assumptions:
- Dealerships are allocated vehicles equally regardless of location or population density.
- The number of dealerships in each state accurately represents sales demand for the state.
You make fair points. It is definitely not perfect logic, but just a ballpark guess. I'm no expert for sure. For all our sakes, I hope what you say is true and there is a stockpile being formed.I know we're bored so we're just piecing stuff together for funnies and giggles.
...but
You're starting your analysis off with assumptions you know are false.
It is very known that each region is treated and prioritized very differently depending on product type. Even on a simplistic level, some drastically favor trucks/SUV, and some favor sedans/compact cars. And even within each region, each dealership is treated and prioritized differently based on performance.
Your estimated total is not far off from known numbers:
~5100 estimated for NA. Thats ~1200 per 3 month period. I would guess that anything between 800-1400 units for the first 3 months is fair game - the first full wave is usually the biggest wave (like the GR86, the first full month sold 1.3k units, the second and third month sold .9k and 1k respectively - I imagine 1k a month is their production rate, but they stockpiled an extra few hundred pre-release).
But where those 800-1400 units will go....
What are the dealers in GA if you don’t mind done asking? I’m north of AtlantaContacted quite a few Toyotas around the east coast
One in Tyson's Corner in VA told me they're putting a 15k markup on it.
One in Tampa,FL told me 10k.
Both can shove it up their asses.
A place in GA told me they won't markup, but they're adding a non-negotiable 4k "package" for nitrogen air, tint, etc.
Talked to another dealer in GA that's only doing a 1.5k markup with a 500 brake light thing,but no other changes/charges. Small small fees for certain things like documentations, etc. Which is about a 2100 charge on MSRP. They're looking like my best option.
I'm #3 on a list in a Toyota in north FL,but they have no info to give me.
To be honest, I can't remember who all I reached out to lol. The one I'm most likely going with, I'll let you know after I put a deposit down 😅 don't wanna move myself down a list while I'm still overseasWhat are the dealers in GA if you don’t mind done asking? I’m north of Atlanta
The best way to maximize your chance of getting one in 2022 is being willing to pay a huge markup. It sucks, but that's 100% fact. For example, if you are number 1 on a list at Jim's Toyota Emporium and I call Jim offering $20k markup for the number 1 spot, I'm going to be number 1 at Jim's Toyota Emporium until someone comes along offering $25k. The reason for this is 1) no matter how much you badmouth them online, it isn't going to do $20k worth of damage to their brand 2) they have no legal obligation to give you the first car and 3) chances are you aren't going to even be aware when the first car comes through that particular dealership... especially if you are on lists of out of town dealers.As you can see, for the calendar year 2022, there will likely be less than 1,000 GR Corollas allocated to the United States. It will be incredibly difficult to get a GR Corolla this year. The best way to maximize your chances of obtaining a vehicle will be to contact as many dealers as you can to maximize your footprint.
I tend to agree. I'll wait.IMO, advising everyone to get their names on a bunch of lists will just ensure chaos. It is just going to make the situation worse and make us buyers look more desperate. Every dealer will think there is more demand than there actually is. Dealers will use that deep waiting list as justification for markup and/or ignoring the waiting list all together for whoever is at the dealership with the most cash in hand when it unloads because they don't want to deal with calling a dozen people who are on multiple lists waiting for their perfect spec.
If your priority is getting one ASAP, get on a list with a dealership, follow up every couple months, go meet the salesperson in person, and be prepared to pay some markup and get a less desirable build.
If your priority is getting exactly what you want, get on a list, meet the salesperson in person, make your desired spec known and clear (what you are flexible on on, what are must haves), follow up every couple months, and be prepared to wait.
I agree with the “if everyone is on 5 lists demand will seem higher than reality”The best way to maximize your chance of getting one in 2022 is being willing to pay a huge markup. It sucks, but that's 100% fact. For example, if you are number 1 on a list at Jim's Toyota Emporium and I call Jim offering $20k markup for the number 1 spot, I'm going to be number 1 at Jim's Toyota Emporium until someone comes along offering $25k. The reason for this is 1) no matter how much you badmouth them online, it isn't going to do $20k worth of damage to their brand 2) they have no legal obligation to give you the first car and 3) chances are you aren't going to even be aware when the first car comes through that particular dealership... especially if you are on lists of out of town dealers.
IMO, advising everyone to get their names on a bunch of lists will just ensure chaos. It is just going to make the situation worse and make us buyers look more desperate. Every dealer will think there is more demand than there actually is. Dealers will use that deep waiting list as justification for markup and/or ignoring the waiting list all together for whoever is at the dealership with the most cash in hand when it unloads because they don't want to deal with calling a dozen people who are on multiple lists waiting for their perfect spec.
If your priority is getting one ASAP, get on a list with a dealership, follow up every couple months, go meet the salesperson in person, and be prepared to pay some markup and get a less desirable build.
If your priority is getting exactly what you want, get on a list, meet the salesperson in person, make your desired spec known and clear (what you are flexible on on, what are must haves), follow up every couple months, and be prepared to wait.
^^^ This. If anyone knows the secret sauce to how this scale is applied please chime in.It is very known that each region is treated and prioritized very differently depending on product type. Even on a simplistic level, some drastically favor trucks/SUV, and some favor sedans/compact cars. And even within each region, each dealership is treated and prioritized differently based on performance.