Thank you for your efforts, KanmuriDavid! This is fun. Because I'm from Michigan, I just wonder if your estimates split the state in two. In the supplied map it looks like the UP is in Chicago region and the lower Michigan is in Cincinnati region.
Estimating US Allocations for 2022
DISCLAIMER TO THREAD:
Since there has been a lot of apprehension in determining what allocations may look like in 2022, I decided to dig into some data to make an educated guess. This estimation makes a lot of assumptions. Therefore, you should not take this information as gospel. It is not official information, and it is very possible that actual allocations will look different.
The data below makes the following assumptions:
SOURCES FOR INFORMATION:
I have provided links to my sources below. Information relating to the number of dealerships in each state was taken directly from official Toyota sources. With regard to which states belong to which sales regions, I found differing information. An article from U.S. News in 2010 defined which states belonged to which regions. It is represented in the map below albeit different names for some regions. This is the map that has been circulated around forums for years.
A document from Toyota in 2017 seemed to indicate that the regions had changed (see image and source below). Connecticut appears to have been moved to the Boston region, the upper peninsula of Michigan appears to have been moved to the Chicago region, and several states like Delaware and Rhode Island appear to be poorly defined. However, I could not find any information online to corroborate these changes. Therefore, for the purposes of these estimations, I have elected to use the previously accepted region map shown above.
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Allocation data was extrapolated from a dealer document leaked in February 2022. The document contained allocation information for the New York region for 2022. The document states that 90 GR Corollas will be allocated to the New York region.
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MY ESTIMATIONS:
Below I have ranked each region by size. I have also included the number of dealerships in the region, the states included, the number of dealers per state, and the number of allocations estimated for the region.
Since there has been a lot of apprehension in determining what allocations may look like in 2022, I decided to dig into some data to make an educated guess. This estimation makes a lot of assumptions. Therefore, you should not take this information as gospel. It is not official information, and it is very possible that actual allocations will look different.
The data below makes the following assumptions:
- Dealerships are allocated vehicles equally regardless of location or population density.
- The number of dealerships in each state accurately represents sales demand for the state.
- The Motomachi plant is capable of fulfilling and shipping all orders without interruption.
SOURCES FOR INFORMATION:
I have provided links to my sources below. Information relating to the number of dealerships in each state was taken directly from official Toyota sources. With regard to which states belong to which sales regions, I found differing information. An article from U.S. News in 2010 defined which states belonged to which regions. It is represented in the map below albeit different names for some regions. This is the map that has been circulated around forums for years.
A document from Toyota in 2017 seemed to indicate that the regions had changed (see image and source below). Connecticut appears to have been moved to the Boston region, the upper peninsula of Michigan appears to have been moved to the Chicago region, and several states like Delaware and Rhode Island appear to be poorly defined. However, I could not find any information online to corroborate these changes. Therefore, for the purposes of these estimations, I have elected to use the previously accepted region map shown above.
Allocation data was extrapolated from a dealer document leaked in February 2022. The document contained allocation information for the New York region for 2022. The document states that 90 GR Corollas will be allocated to the New York region.
Source for 2022 New York Allocations: Carscoops Article
It is important to note that the map I chose to use above is significant in combination with this leaked dealer document. Because Connecticut is considered part of the New York region in the older map, allocations per dealership estimations will be lower. If Connecticut is in fact part of the Boston region, which I cannot verify, allocations per dealership will be higher. If you have any additional information on sales regions, please let me know.
MY ESTIMATIONS:
Total Estimated 2022 Allocations: 923
Estimated Allocations per Dealership: 0.62
Below I have ranked each region by size. I have also included the number of dealerships in the region, the states included, the number of dealers per state, and the number of allocations estimated for the region.
- Southeast Toyota
- Total Number of Dealerships: 217
- States Included: Florida (78), North Carolina (46), Georgia (44), Alabama (25), South Carolina (24)
- Estimated 2022 Allocation: 135
- Gulf States Toyota
- Total Number of Dealerships: 176
- States Included: Texas (100), Louisiana (27), Mississippi (18), Arkansas (16), Oklahoma (15)
- Estimated 2022 Allocation: 109
- Los Angeles and San Francisco Regions*
- Total Number of Dealerships: 174
- States Included: California (174)
- Estimated 2022 Allocation: 108
- Central Atlantic Toyota
- Total Number of Dealerships: 157
- States Included: Pennsylvania (67), Virginia (41), Maryland (31), West Virginia (13), Delaware (5)
- Estimated 2022 Allocation: 97
- New York Region:
- Total Number of Dealerships: 145
- States Included: New York (79), New Jersey (42), Connecticut (24)
- Rumored 2022 Allocation: 90
- Cincinnati Region
- Total Number of Dealerships: 143
- States Included: Ohio (55), Michigan (33), Tennessee (32), Kentucky (23)
- Estimated 2022 Allocation: 89
- Chicago Region
- Total Number of Dealerships: 134
- States Included: Illinois (57), Indiana (31), Wisconsin (27), Minnesota (19)
- Estimated 2022 Allocation: 83
- Denver Region
- Total Number of Dealerships: 89
- States Included: Arizona (25), Colorado (23), New Mexico (13), Nevada (11), Utah (10), Wyoming (7)
- Estimated 2022 Allocation: 55
- Kansas City Region
- Total Number of Dealerships: 85
- States Included: Missouri (27), Iowa (18), Kansas (17), Nebraska (11), North Dakota (7), South Dakota (5)
- Estimated 2022 Allocation: 53
- Portland Region
- Total Number of Dealerships: 80
- States Included: Washington (35), Oregon (25), Idaho (9), Montana (7), Alaska (4)
- Estimated 2022 Allocation: 50
- Boston Region
- Total Number of Dealerships: 80
- States Included: Massachusetts (43), New Hampshire (13), Maine (10), Vermont (7), Rhode Island (7)
- Estimated 2022 Allocation: 50
- Toyota Hawaii
- Total Number of Dealerships: 6
- States Included: Hawaii (6)
- Estimated 2022 Allocation: 4
* The Los Angeles and San Francisco regions were combined because I could not locate data for the individual regions.
CONCLUSIONS
As you can see, for the calendar year 2022, there will likely be less than 1,000 GR Corollas allocated to the United States. It will be incredibly difficult to get a GR Corolla this year. The best way to maximize your chances of obtaining a vehicle will be to contact as many dealers as you can to maximize your footprint.
From this data, you can make more estimations for your local area. Simply multiply the estimated allocations per dealer by the number of dealers in your area. This will give you an idea of just how many vehicles will come to your city.
If there is anything you find wrong in my data, please do not hesitate to let me know. I hope you find this useful.
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