[Tokyotexan]

So, people who are 1 or 2 on a "list" and wanting a circuit edition are facing a dilemma. So, because the core will be released first, do you pass on any core models being offered and hold out for possibly scoring a circuit edition (knowing that if you fail to score a circuit edition, you likely won't get a core either as they will probably be all sold by the time the circuit editions are released). Or do you jump on the first fully loaded/PP core that is offered to you, and always have that regret that if you held out, you could have possibly score a circuit edition?

Well, we obviously don't know for certain which dealerships will get a circuit edition. All we could do was speculate that each of the approximately 1250 US dealerships would receive at least 1 and the remaining 250 or so would be distributed to larger higher volume dealerships.
Im beginning to think that speculation is not accurate. The leaked official toyota press release of the GR Corolla specifically referred to a "launch edition" which we now know to be the "Circuit Edition". Toyota realized that the "launch editions" would actually not be able to be released by the end of 2022, so they changed the name to "Circuit Edition". So with that being said, if we are to treat the "circuit edition" as really being the "launch edition", than we can speculate that the 1500 models of the "circuit/launch edition" GR Corolla will be distributed the exact same way and to the exact same dealerships as the 1500 Launch edition 2020 Supras.
So, my advice to those who are 1 or 2 on a dealership "list" and want a Circuit Edition, would be to call your dealership and ask them to look through their past allocations and see if they were allocated any 2020 launch edition supras and if so, how many did they get. If they did, than chances of you getting one are pretty high (barring any funny business going on with your dealer selling to an employee and/or owner taking it for him/herself.)

I called my dealership and asked them that exact question. They got back to me a few hrs later and stated they did receive 1 launch edition and also bought another launch edition from a neighboring dealership, so they had a total of 2.
So barring any funny business (dealership claims in a separate email that they do not let employees "jump the line" for limited production number vehicles), and if this speculation is true, I should have a good chance of scoring a Circuit Edition seeing as how I am first on the "list" and my dealer is a MSRP only dealer as well.

My apologies for the long drawn out posting, I have a tendency to do that.

So to make things simple, call your dealership and ask them if they received any 2020 Launch Edition Supra's. If they did, than that dealership will likely get a Circuit Edition GRC.

 

[jdm-v35]

Personally, I am also after a circuit edition and first on the list. I am pretty much only interested in a circuit so I will pass on any cores that come before circuit allocation is given. My dealer actually brought it up that they got a launch edition so they were confident they would get a circuit. If they pull something funny or don't get one I may consider a loaded core after circuits are allocated, but more than likely will just order an RS3 instead as I am pretty close to circuit or bust. We just need to wait and see how it plays out i guess.

 

[qtb007]

Toyota won‘t build a bunch of core models for Oct - Feb delivery and then build 1500 Circuit Editions at the end of the model year. They build in a method called heijunka. It means level loading. So, when they start building the Circuit Editions, they will sprinkle instructions to build a CE every 4th or 5th GR Corolla coming down the line until they have built their 1500 CEs. They will likely take a few months to build all 1500 CEs. Heijunka is very beneficial to manufacturing because the supply base of parts get consistent monthly orders spread over time instead of getting slammed with 1500 pieces and then nothing until the next model year. Manufacturing is all about balancing capacity and demand.

There will be core models coming to dealerships consistently once deliveries start in the fall until the production stops at the end of the GR Corolla model life, so you shouldn’t worry about passing on a core for a circuit. More cores will come.

I also don’t think that the 1/dealer or Supra Launch Edition is a good benchmark. Supra has a different buyer than the GRC. Toyota is going to send them where they think they will sell. They have market research data and they will use it.

 

[jdm-v35]

Toyota won‘t build a bunch of core models for Oct - Feb delivery and then build 1500 Circuit Editions at the end of the model year. They build in a method called heijunka. It means level loading. So, when they start building the Circuit Editions, they will sprinkle instructions to build a CE every 4th or 5th GR Corolla coming down the line until they have built their 1500 CEs. They will likely take a few months to build all 1500 CEs. Heijunka is very beneficial to manufacturing because the supply base of parts get consistent monthly orders spread over time instead of getting slammed with 1500 pieces and then nothing until the next model year. Manufacturing is all about balancing capacity and demand.

There will be core models coming to dealerships consistently once deliveries start in the fall until the production stops at the end of the GR Corolla model life, so you shouldn’t worry about passing on a core for a circuit. More cores will come.

I also don’t think that the 1/dealer or Supra Launch Edition is a good benchmark. Supra has a different buyer than the GRC. Toyota is going to send them where they think they will sell. They have market research data and they will use it.

So Circuit allocations would probably also come around the same time as core allocations because the first round of cars should be manufactured together?

 

[qtb007]

So Circuit allocations would probably also come around the same time as core allocations because the first round of cars should be manufactured together?

The first few months of production will be all core. Ramp up will be all core models. Toward the end of the year, they will start sprinkling CE builds among the core that they are still building. We won’t see the CEs on lots until next spring, but it won’t be a flood of 1500 cars in one allocation. It will maybe be 400/mo or something like that through Mar, April, May, and June all while dealers are still getting core models.

 

[Tokyotexan]

Toyota won‘t build a bunch of core models for Oct - Feb delivery and then build 1500 Circuit Editions at the end of the model year. They build in a method called heijunka. It means level loading. So, when they start building the Circuit Editions, they will sprinkle instructions to build a CE every 4th or 5th GR Corolla coming down the line until they have built their 1500 CEs. They will likely take a few months to build all 1500 CEs. Heijunka is very beneficial to manufacturing because the supply base of parts get consistent monthly orders spread over time instead of getting slammed with 1500 pieces and then nothing until the next model year. Manufacturing is all about balancing capacity and demand.

There will be core models coming to dealerships consistently once deliveries start in the fall until the production stops at the end of the GR Corolla model life, so you shouldn’t worry about passing on a core for a circuit. More cores will come.

I also don’t think that the 1/dealer or Supra Launch Edition is a good benchmark. Supra has a different buyer than the GRC. Toyota is going to send them where they think they will sell. They have market research data and they will use it.

I will have to disagree with you in your last paragraph. Toyota had no idea where the supras would sell well, it was brand new car and in a segment that they have been missing from in quite awhile. Same will go for the GR corolla, albeit they will have some in for bases on core number sold. But even then, all core models will be sold out, so that really wont give them any helpful info either. The launch edition supra theory makes more sense to me at this point.

 

[qtb007]

I will have to disagree with you in your last paragraph. Toyota had no idea where the supras would sell well, it was brand new car and in a segment that they have been missing from in quite awhile. Same will go for the GR corolla, albeit they will have some in for bases on core number sold. But even then, all core models will be sold out, so that really wont give them any helpful info either. The launch edition supra theory makes more sense to me at this point.

We are in the era of big data. Toyota makes decisions based on data. The buyer of a $50-60k RWD sports car is different than the buyer of a $40k AWD hot hatch. I expect that the Supra mostly ended up on the coasts and across the south as far as allocation. We will see some stronger penetration into the Midwest, New England, mountain states, and northwest with the GRC thanks to AWD.


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[luluna]

IMO, there is no dilemma and the equation is quite simple - you either need a car ASAP (for any reason; primarily car is dying, first car, moving, even 'clout', etc) and it doesn't make sense to wait for an indeterminate amount of time with no guarantees.

Or you don't need a car ASAP and you want a CE, wait and see. If you don't get one, buy the CG as they become available, as they inevitably will as they're clearly intending to produce this car for years. Honestly, if one is not in a hurry, this is the best option. I'm sure refinements will be made with each passing year - and with how the CE spoiler not even being finalized publicly, I imagine there are a lot of other elements that work - but could use some additional refinement. I imagine new colors will added with each passing year as well.

Anything else is ultimately a waste of energy - dealerships are going to tell you what you want to hear - and they're going to do what they want regardless of any comments they make. You could be first in line, and they could be allocated the GRC CE...but oh wait! Another dealership just offered to trade the TRD Pro allocation for the GRC allocation! Whoops...guess no GRC CE Just refer to Longo basically shifting the GRC waitlist as reference.

Once you're in 'line', all you can do is wait (and at the mercy of the dealership).

 

[Tokyotexan]

We are in the era of big data. Toyota makes decisions based on data. The buyer of a $50-60k RWD sports car is different than the buyer of a $40k AWD hot hatch. I expect that the Supra mostly ended up on the coasts and across the south as far as allocation. We will see some stronger penetration into the Midwest, New England, mountain states, and northwest with the GRC thanks to AWD.


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We can just agree to disagree. I find it more than a coincidence that Toyota is offering the same amount of circuit/launch edition GRC's as they did the launch edition supras.

 

[Ohniner]

We can just agree to disagree. I find it more than a coincidence that Toyota is offering the same amount of circuit/launch edition GRC's as they did the launch edition supras.

If only speculation=allocations, we’d all have what we want.

 

[Tokyotexan]

IMO, there is no dilemma and the equation is quite simple - you either need a car ASAP (for any reason; primarily car is dying, first car, moving, even 'clout', etc) and it doesn't make sense to wait for an indeterminate amount of time with no guarantees.

Or you don't need a car ASAP and you want a CE, wait and see. If you don't get one, buy the CG as they become available, as they inevitably will as they're clearly intending to produce this car for years. Honestly, if one is not in a hurry, this is the best option. I'm sure refinements will be made with each passing year - and with how the CE spoiler not even being finalized publicly, I imagine there are a lot of other elements that work - but could use some additional refinement. I imagine new colors will added with each passing year as well.

Anything else is ultimately a waste of energy - dealerships are going to tell you what you want to hear - and they're going to do what they want regardless of any comments they make. You could be first in line, and they could be allocated the GRC CE...but oh wait! Another dealership just offered to trade the TRD Pro allocation for the GRC allocation! Whoops...guess no GRC CE Just refer to Longo basically shifting the GRC waitlist as reference.

Once you're in 'line', all you can do is wait (and at the mercy of the dealership).

I wouldn't be so sure that the GRC will be offered for many years. With the progressively rising emissions requirements, focus on EV's, and the more than likely recession coming upon us within the next year or so, and intrest rates rising, multiple model years of the GRC is not guaranteed.

 

[Gravel Grindings]

I wouldn't be so sure that the GRC will be offered for many years. With the progressively rising emissions requirements, focus on EV's, and the more than likely recession coming upon us within the next year or so, and intrest rates rising, multiple model years of the GRC is not guaranteed.

I'd wager we get 2-4 years. 4 years being very optimistic. This is a low level halo car for a small segment of the North AMerican market and not a profit or sales number driver.

 

[Jeonsa]

I'd wager we get 2-4 years. 4 years being very optimistic. This is a low level halo car for a small segment of the North AMerican market and not a profit or sales number driver.

Eh who knows, I can see a variation of a sporty Corolla going longer then the 86 at this point. The Corolla is more flexible to changing regulations then other cars in the GR lineup.

 

[Gravel Grindings]

Eh who knows, I can see a variation of a sporty Corolla going longer then the 86 at this point. The Corolla is more flexible to changing regulations then other cars in the GR lineup.

I sure hope so! I just wonder how long this generation of Corolla HB has to go. If Toyota doesn't turn a profit on these, I don't see them lasting very long. I think that for the North AMerican market, trucks and SUVs are driving sales numbers and profit. If they can push this platform as long as they've pushed the Tacoma, we won't have trouble getting a GR Corolla.

 

[luluna]

I wouldn't be so sure that the GRC will be offered for many years. With the progressively rising emissions requirements, focus on EV's, and the more than likely recession coming upon us within the next year or so, and intrest rates rising, multiple model years of the GRC is not guaranteed.

That doesn't really change your dilemma though. The car, or some evolved variant, will be produced for the foreseeable feature. Minimum 3 years outside of any calamity, and likely till the dawn of their full EV transition.

This means if you pass on the CG and fail to get the CE, you still have ample time to acquire a CG. And if you need a car ASAP, or you MUST HAVE the GRC...you should buy the first acceptable CG.

And nothing is guaranteed - and anything can happen. You make decisions based on the probable - which you estimate based on historical and current events - but honestly, if the world is so bad that Toyota decides that it can't make the GRC...its probably the least of our concerns. We're talking WWIII or natural calamities like massive earthquakes or the eruption of Mount Fuji.

 

[Jeonsa]

I sure hope so! I just wonder how long this generation of Corolla HB has to go. If Toyota doesn't turn a profit on these, I don't see them lasting very long. I think that for the North AMerican market, trucks and SUVs are driving sales numbers and profit. If they can push this platform as long as they've pushed the Tacoma, we won't have trouble getting a GR Corolla.

The regular Corolla actually sells very well in general everywhere. Lol. It’s a staple for Toyota amongst trucks and SUVs. That’s why they made a cuv variation as well.

I think Toyota doesn’t know how long they want to make the car. But Akio seems more interested in creating pure Toyota products.

Out of all the GR cars, the Corolla is essentially a modified E210 anyways (similar to how Honda tweaks the Civic into a Si/Type R) which i imagine is cheaper to do then creating a brand new chassis.

 

[rallycorolla]

I'd wager we get 2-4 years. 4 years being very optimistic. This is a low level halo car for a small segment of the North AMerican market and not a profit or sales number driver.

I think 2 years of sales is too short for a car that's spent the better part of 3 years in development. I would be surprised if we don't get 4 years out of the car.

That said I think almost everyone on this forum who seriously wants one will get one eventually, be it this year, next, or the one after that.

 

[A91supra]

We are in the era of big data. Toyota makes decisions based on data. The buyer of a $50-60k RWD sports car is different than the buyer of a $40k AWD hot hatch. I expect that the Supra mostly ended up on the coasts and across the south as far as allocation. We will see some stronger penetration into the Midwest, New England, mountain states, and northwest with the GRC thanks to AWD.


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I disagree. I have a Supra, and have ordered a GRC. Simply because I don't drive my Supra in winter. I wanted a new STI, but Subaru decided to be idiots. Oh well. Lots of RWD sports car owners who live in snow states have winter cars. And the GRC fits that bill perfectly.

 

[Jeonsa]

I disagree. I have a Supra, and have ordered a GRC. Simply because I don't drive my Supra in winter. I wanted a new STI, but Subaru decided to be idiots. Oh well. Lots of RWD sports car owners who live in snow states have winter cars. And the GRC fits that bill perfectly.

I get what you’re saying but he’s talking about as a toy. You’re essentially getting it as a second car while your toy is the Supra in ways, where probably a majority of people would consider this their “sports car.”

Nonetheless it’s all speculation on how their allocations go.

 

[qtb007]

I wouldn't be so sure that the GRC will be offered for many years. With the progressively rising emissions requirements, focus on EV's, and the more than likely recession coming upon us within the next year or so, and intrest rates rising, multiple model years of the GRC is not guaranteed.

It is built at Motomachi, so it doesn't necessarily have to follow the timeline of the Corolla HB. Heck, most of the lines are set up in such a way that they can run the different generations down the line back to back if needed. When I launched my last engine project, we were building both the new and the old engine back to back down the line. When I was at a vehicle assembly plant a month ago, they were running the new generation of the car down the line right with the old generation. Like everything else Toyota, they use data to make a plan and carry out the plan. They occasionally kill off a model early because it isn't meeting expectations, but I don't think that will be the case with the GR Corolla. I expect we will get at least 3 model years, possibly 4.

I disagree. I have a Supra, and have ordered a GRC. Simply because I don't drive my Supra in winter. I wanted a new STI, but Subaru decided to be idiots. Oh well. Lots of RWD sports car owners who live in snow states have winter cars. And the GRC fits that bill perfectly.

I'm sure there will be others. I doubt that your buying habits will be the norm, though. Most buyers of this car aren't spending $90k on Toyotas. I do fully expect there will be people that buy all 3 GR models to complete the collection, but that's a fringe fanboy thing and definitely won't sway the allocation in a meaningful way.